Modeling the distribution of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann, 1824) (Diptera, Tephritidae) in Turkey and its range expansion in Black Sea Region

Abstract

Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann, 1824) (Diptera, Tephritidae), an important fruit pest, is not expected to expand its range under current climatic conditions with an exception of the Black Sea coasts that was hypothesized to be suitable for C. capitata invasion. After finding a C. capitata-infested mandarin in western Black Sea Region of Turkey, we tested this hypothesis. We first used ecological niche modeling approach to determine suitable places for C. capitata survival in Turkey; and then visited eastern Black Sea region of Turkey where the model predicted to be suitable. For the model, we collected fruit samples from 49 localities in southern and western Turkey, where C. capitata presence has already been known, and one locality from northern Turkey, where its presence has not been known, in November 2014 and 2015 and transferred them to laboratory to observe adult emergence. Ceratitis capitata adults emerged from 44 localities. These localities were used as the presence data for the model. After obtaining the model results, we visited eastern Black Sea Region, and collected fruit samples from 11 different localities, and transferred them to laboratory to observe adult emergence. In total, 49 C. capitata adults emerged. Thus, presence of C. capitata was shown in the eastern Black Sea for the first time. The model also predicted that suitable areas in the Black Sea basin for C. capitata survival tend to expand in future.