The effect of precipitation and temperature on wheat yield in Turkey: a panel FMOLS and panel VECM approach

Abstract

Wheat is one of the products that can have the greatest effect of climate anomalies. Turkey is among the top 10 countries in the world with the production of approximately 20million tons of wheat per year. In this study, the effect of the changes in temperature and precipitation in Turkey between 1997 and 2016 on wheat yield was investigated by panel FMOLS and panel VECM analysis. The study includes three regions that slight drought, moderate drought and severe drought. According to the analysis results, in each of the three regions evaluated, it appears that yield is inversely related to temperature, while there is a positive relationship with precipitation. As a result of the vector error correction model, in slight drought (SLD), moderate drought (MD) and severe drought regions (SVD), long-term causality relation between temperature and precipitation factors with wheat yield was determined. In conclusion, it can be said that due to climatic trends caused by climatic factors, the 1% increase in temperature may lead to yield loss of 0.84%, 0.43 and 0.48% for wheat in SVD, MD and SLD regions, respectively. Similarly, the 1% increase in precipitation may increase the wheat yield as 0.20%, 0.12 and 0.09% in SVD, MD and SLD regions, respectively. Accordingly, it may be suggested to re-model some practices taking into account the changing climatic conditions such as the selection of appropriate varieties, agricultural production systems and sowing dates.