Is Military Spending Converging Across Middle Eastern Countries and Turkiye? A Comprehensive Unit Root Test Analysis

Abstract

The Middle East is a region of chronic insecurity due to internal and external tensions. These tensions and insecurity have made the Middle East one of the world's leading regions in military armaments. This study investigates the stochastic convergence of military burden in 10 selected Middle Eastern countries using comprehensive unit root analysis. Stochastic convergence for each country from 1977 to 2020 is examined using conventional, structural break, nonlinear, and Fourier-based unit root tests. Empirical results provide strong evidence of convergence with regional averages in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. There is also some evidence of convergence in the case of Israel, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Turkiye. However, evidence for the existence of convergence in Iran and Jordan is weak.