Impact of global climate change on agricultural production: Balkan countries in 2050

Abstract

The occurrence of extreme weather events due to today’s climate change is having a significant impact on agriculture. The purpose of this study is to estimate the possible effects of global climate change on agriculture at a regional level. To this end, the Global trade analyses project (GTAP) model has been used to examine the possible effects of climate change on agricultural production in Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, and other Balkan countries for 2050. GTAP analysis data is compiled from the GTAP database, which includes 6 regions and 33 sectors. It has been calculated that climate change will have negative effects on the gross domestic product (GDP) of Balkan countries. The negative impact of global climate change on crop yields is predicted to reduce the competitiveness of Balkan countries in the foreign trade of agricultural products. © 2020, Scibulcom Ltd.. All rights reserved.