The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immigration from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Abstract

Due to developments in the field of transportation and communication, communication and technological facilities have sped up the migration movements between countries by reducing the cost of migration. Additionally, as a result of developments in facilities and technology provided by globalization, the trade volume of the world is increasing rapidly. This study tested the impact of foreign trade on migrants from Turkey to Germany from the years 1988-2018 with the ARDL bounds testing approach for the first time. Hereby, it is aimed to make an original contribution by the use of this method. This study sought to answer the question of what the impact of Turkey's import and export has been on outgoing immigrants from Turkey to Germany from 1988-2018. The hypotheses of this study are that Turkey's imports and exports to Germany are increasing the migratory flows between Turkey and Germany and that foreign trade and migration are complementary between Turkey and Germany. According to the results of the study, what has been found is a cointegration relationship between Turkey's foreign trade with Germany and immigrants from Turkey to Germany. Moreover; If there is a 1% increase to Turkey's exports to Germany, the immigrant flow increase 0.30% to Germany from Turkey. If there is a 1% increase to Germany's imports to Turkey, there is a 0.21% increase in the immigrant flows to Germany from Turkey.