Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Hydropower Production and Water Supply in the Mediterranean Hotspot

Abstract

Appraising the possible impacts of a changing climate on water resources infrastructure is essential for ensuring long-term sustainability, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the Mediterranean hotspot. This study applies an integrated modeling framework to evaluate the operational reliability of the Karakuz Dam and Hydroelectric Power Plant, a multi-purpose project located in southern Turkey. The framework utilizes daily bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data from 24 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The best-performing GCMs are combined into multi-model ensembles under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, along with the CMIP6 historical experiment. Reservoir inflows are modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), while lake evaporation estimates are included to determine the total available water volume for hydropower generation, domestic use, and downstream ecological flow requirements. Results indicate potential reductions in hydropower production of up to 16.6% under SSP2-4.5 and up to 46.6% under SSP5-8.5. Despite these reductions, designated domestic and environmental demands are projected to be met under both future scenarios. The study highlights the critical importance of adaptive water management strategies to mitigate adverse climate impacts and preserve the resilience and functionality of hydropower systems.